Economic Analysis

Recent reports and analyses

Manufacturing still resilient

2019-02-21 Daily

In today's Eyeopener: - Industrial production rose more than expected in January - Zloty weaker, despite good data from Poland - Debt gained in reaction to news from ECB - Today, Polish retail sales and construction output, European...

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Data abundance

2019-02-15 Weekly

What’s hot next week • The coming week will be full of domestic and foreign data that could shed some light on the level of economic activity at the beginning of the year. In Poland, we will see wages and employment (Tuesday), industrial output (Wednesday), construction output and retail sales (Thursday), economic sentiment indexes, money supply and maybe the budget performance after January (Friday). Abroad, we will follow economic activity indexes (flash PMIs, Ifo, ZEW) and US durable goods orders and...

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Santander MACROscope - 2019 Outlook: Turning points (still) ahead

2019-01-10 Macroscope

In the special edition of the MACROscope we present our forecasts for Polish economy and financial markets for 2019: We see clouds thickening over the global economic outlook, and although we do not expect a major downturn in Europe in 2019, the worsening external environment will gradually take its toll, further depressing Polish exports and manufacturing (strongly linked with European value chains). The good news is that domestic investments financed by EU structural funds, which have revived in 2018, are...

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Say goodbye to five percent growth

2019-01-31 Instant comment

GDP growth in 2018 was 5.1% according to flash estimate, in line with our forecast, which means that in 4Q18 economy has ‘finally’ slowed below 5% mark. Our estimate for the final quarter is 4.8% y/y. In general, 2018 was the excellent year for Polish economy, as it refused to show any major slowdown despite growing evidence of deteriorating business climate across Europe. However, it is time to say goodbye to five-percent growth. Still, we remain moderately optimistic for...

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