Economic Analysis

Recent reports and analyses

Industry decelerates at the end of 3Q

2018-10-18 Daily

In today's Eyeopener: - Polish industry in poor shape at the end of 3Q - Zloty and its CEE peers under pressure, dollar gains after FOMC minutes - Polish and core bond yields down - Today, US...

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Core yields key for other assets

2018-10-12 Weekly

What’s hot next week • Numerous Polish data are on the agenda in the coming days with the September industrial output and retail sales being the most awaited. Our forecast for the former is clearly below the market consensus, while for the retail sales were are close to what the market expects. We also expect a slight decrease of core inflation. • Globally, investors are likely to focus on the US data and the beginning of the quarterly earnings publication season starting this...

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Sum of All Fears

2018-10-10 Macroscope

In October's MACROscope: The fears of looming global economic slowdown are on the rise. The OECD and the IMF have just trimmed their global growth forecasts, blaming the escalating trade tensions, rising interest rates and stress in emerging markets for the deteriorating outlook. The downward forecast revisions have been modest to date, but at the same time there was a growing concern that the risks to global outlook have been strengthening and tilting to the downside. Poland has been...

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Output close to our pessimistic call

2018-10-17 Instant comment

September's data on output surprised to the downside but were close to our pessimistic calls, with industry adding 2.8% y/y (market forecast: 4.1% y/y, our forecast: 2.3% y/y) and construction expanding by 16.4% y/y (market forecast: 18.1%, our forecast: 15.8% y/y). In the months to come, we expect the industrial output growth to rebound to c5% on average, i.e. well below the pace we have seen in 1H18 (6-7%). The output data fit our expectations that the Polish economy...

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