Economic Analysis

Recent reports and analyses

Polish industry immune to slowdown

2019-04-19 Daily

In today's Eyeopener: - Eurozone manufacturing PMI finally higher, but still below forecasts - Industrial production in Poland surprised positively - Strong drop of EURUSD negative for PLN and other CEE currencies - Polish bonds underperforming core debt markets - Today Moody's rating review, US housing market data, market holiday in...

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Happy Easter!

2019-04-19 Weekly

What’s hot next week • Next week in Poland is not only shorter (holiday on Monday) but also situated right between Easter and the long May weekend. It does not have to mean, however, that it will be dull and inactive period for markets. First of all, we will see a number of new data releases, and secondly the election campaign for the European Elections is entering its crucial stage, so it could be a hot period in terms of political...

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Against the rules

2019-04-02 Macroscope

This month in the MACROscope: After three months of this year we see evidence that economic slowdown is underway, but – as we argued in the January’s 2019 Outlook – it will be quite mild in Poland, with average GDP growth in 2019 at c.4% (vs. 5.1% in 2018). While the markets are still fretting about economic outlook for Europe, we believe that fundamentals are good, hoping to see higher economic activity in the Euro zone in 2H19. Especially given...

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Redistribution rather than easing

2019-04-18 Instant comment

The government has found a way to deliver the costly election promises without breaching the expenditure rule or even without halting the fiscal consolidation. This was achieved through (1) indication of new sources of revenues (with the upfront taxation of pension savings playing the key role), (2) trimming the room for expenditures other than those linked to the pre-election promises, except maybe a few areas where increases are obligatory from the legal point of view. If government plans are...

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Santander Bank Polska S.A. with its registered office in Warsaw, al. Jana Pawła II 17, 00-854 Warszawa, registered by the District Court for the capital city of Warsaw, 12th Commercial Division, set up under regulation of the Council of Ministers of 11 April 1988 on setting up Bank Zachodni in Wrocław (Journal of Laws of 1 July 1988, No. 21, item 142), registered under KRS number 0000008723, REGON 930041341, NIP 896 000 56 73, share capital of PLN 1,020,883,050 paid-up in full. Helpline: 1 9999 – fee as per the operator’s tariff.