Economic Analysis

Recent reports and analyses

Brexit saga continues

2019-01-16 Daily

In today's Eyeopener: - Dollar kept strengthening yesterday on weak European data - Domestic bonds gained, FRAs price in a rate cut in 2021 - Złoty followed the euro down - Today Polish core CPI, German HICP and US retail...

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Brexit – take two

2019-01-11 Weekly

What’s hot next week • The main event of the week would be the Tuesday’s vote of the Withdrawal Agreement in the UK parliament. In December, PM May postponed the voting due to low chances of a success. Not much has changed since then, but recently a few lawmakers changed their mind which gives hope that support will rise further during the weekend. The voting result could set the market mood for the rest of the week. In the US, some...

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Santander MACROscope - 2019 Outlook: Turning points (still) ahead

2019-01-10 Macroscope

In the special edition of the MACROscope we present our forecasts for Polish economy and financial markets for 2019: We see clouds thickening over the global economic outlook, and although we do not expect a major downturn in Europe in 2019, the worsening external environment will gradually take its toll, further depressing Polish exports and manufacturing (strongly linked with European value chains). The good news is that domestic investments financed by EU structural funds, which have revived in 2018, are...

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Inflation trough set in December?

2019-01-15 Instant comment

In December, Poland CPI inflation amounted to 1.1% y/y, in line with the flash estimate. A drop vs November’s 1.3% y/y was driven mainly by lower fuel prices (-3.3% m/m). In the remaining categories, prices trended somewhat down – our estimate for the December core CPI is 0.6% y/y vs 0.7% in November. We expect core inflation to move up gradually in 2019. In our view, the margin compression process in companies is so advanced that we should see...

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