Economic Analysis

Recent reports and analyses

Brexit’s fate is still uncertain

2018-11-16 Daily

In today's Eyeopener: - British politics unsettles markets - Zloty and other CEE fx stable despite risk aversion - Polish yield curve flattened, strong switch auction result - Today data from euro zone and the...

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Slowdown that was not there

2018-11-16 Weekly

What’s hot next week • Last week we saw a bunch of surprising news from Poland. The biggest surprise in terms of economic data releases was the flash GDP data for 3Q18, showing growth of 5.1% y/y or in seasonal adjusted terms 1.7% q/q. We still don’t know what was the breakdown of the growth (detailed data to be released at the end of November) or how to explain the fact that the data apparently show a sharp revival...

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Clouded, the future is

2018-11-09 Macroscope

In November's MACROscope: The outlook for the European economy remains clouded, as new data continue providing new signs of weakness (disappointing PMI indicators, poor 3Q18 GDP reading) and the situation is further complicated by political developments (budgetary conflict with Italy, political struggle in Germany, continuing deadlock in Brexit negotiations). We still try to be cautiously optimistic, assuming no major downturn in the euro zone in the coming quarters (especially that there were some shy signs of improvement in the most...

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GDP beats expectations, CPI under control

2018-11-14 Instant comment

GDP growth surprised to the upside in 3Q18 and showed 5.1% y/y as compared to average expectations at 4.6% and highest market forecast at 4.9% y/y. The GDP growth remained above 5% for the fifth time in a row and this is the best streak since 2006-2008 economic boom. We expect that in the next quarters Polish GDP will decelerate, mainly owing to weakening trend in international trade. However 2018 full-year growth of GDP may start from a five. The...

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Santander Bank Polska S.A. with its registered office in Warsaw, al. Jana Pawła II 17, 00-854 Warszawa, registered by the District Court for the capital city of Warsaw, 12th Commercial Division, set up under regulation of the Council of Ministers of 11 April 1988 on setting up Bank Zachodni in Wrocław (Journal of Laws of 1 July 1988, No. 21, item 142), registered under KRS number 0000008723, REGON 930041341, NIP 896 000 56 73, share capital of PLN 1,020,883,050 paid-up in full. Helpline: 1 9999 – fee as per the operator’s tariff.